The Milwaukee Bucks host the Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals on Wednesday evening. Milwaukee trails Phoenix by a 2-1 margin in the best-of-seven series. Phoenix won the first two games at home, prevailing by double digits in both contests. Milwaukee responded with a 20-point win in its home building on Sunday night.
Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a four-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220.5 in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Suns picks and NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
Hartstein, who is a regular on The Early Edge podcast, has identified the right side to back in his analysis for the NBA Finals 2021. Hartstein is a blistering 61-33 on his last 94 ATS NBA picks involving the Suns, a stretch that has made $100 bettors more than $2500. He is also a perfect 3-0 so far in the NBA Finals. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.
- Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4
- Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 220.5 points
- Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -185, Suns +165
- PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight road games
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in the last six home games
Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns
Why the Suns can cover
Phoenix still has the edge in the series, both in the win column and by out-scoring the Bucks overall. The Suns are a tremendous two-way team, and that has been on full display in the postseason with Monty Williams’ club is out-scoring opponents by almost six points per 100 possessions.
Offensively, Phoenix is known for its tremendous shooting prowess, including 48 percent from the floor, 38 percent from 3-point range and 86 percent from the free-throw line during this extended playoff run. Led by Chris Paul, Phoenix is generating 24.0 assists per game and more than two assists for every turnover in the postseason. Defensively, Phoenix is holding opponents to fewer than 1.08 points per possession, and the Suns are a top-tier team in contesting shots. Opponents are posting an ugly 50.4 percent effective field-goal shooting mark against the Suns in the 2021 NBA Playoffs.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee’s offense found its groove in Game 3 after showing signs in Game 2. The Bucks scored nearly 1.24 points per possession in Sunday’s win, throttling the Suns near the rim and on the offensive glass. In fact, the last two games have been a reminder that Milwaukee was a top-three team in the NBA in offensive efficiency this season, as the Bucks have scored 119.4 points per 100 possessions after a dud in the series opener.
Milwaukee was No. 3 in the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.7 percent) during the regular season, and the Bucks were also a top-five group in 3-point shooting (38.9 percent). From there, the Bucks have been above-average in turnover rate (13.4 percent) and offensive rebound rate (26.9 percent) throughout the season, with elite offensive rebounding in the playoffs, grabbing more than 30 percent of their own missed shots.
On the other end, Milwaukee has had a tougher time with Phoenix, but the Bucks found their footing in Game 3. The Bucks have also been elite in stopping teams near the rim, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in 2-point percentage allowed (50.7 percent) this season. Milwaukee is the league’s best team in keeping opponents away from the free-throw line, both in the regular season and the playoffs, and the Bucks are playing against a Suns team that struggles mightily on the offensive glass.
How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks
Hartstein is leaning under on the point total after nailing the total in each of the first three 2021 NBA Finals games. He also sees value on one side, with critical X-factors to keep in mind. He’s sharing those NBA Finals 2021 picks only at SportsLine
So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.